Vietnam Coffee Market: August 2026 Price and Supply Outlook

Executive Summary

Vietnam entered August 2026 in the final pre-harvest stretch of the 2025/26 crop cycle. GreenTech’s Central Highlands market checks on August 6 placed farm-gate Robusta at 98,300–99,000 VND/kg, while the market snapshot supplied to our desk showed nearby ICE London Robusta at $3,853–$3,891/MT and ICE New York Arabica at 308.21–308.77 ¢/lb.

These figures are a time-specific commercial snapshot, not official daily settlement data. Importers should verify executable futures levels on the ICE Robusta and ICE Coffee C pages or through their broker before hedging.

The central procurement issue is the gap between an improving 2026/27 global balance and tight prompt execution. Analyst estimates differ: Rabobank projected an 8.64-million-bag surplus, while StoneX projected about 10 million bags. At the same time, limited old-crop selling in Vietnam and Brazilian port constraints can keep near-term replacement costs firm even when deferred supply expectations improve.

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Market Snapshot — August 6, 2026

Metric	Indicative level	Interpretation	Source / verification
Vietnam Robusta, farm gate	98,300–99,000 VND/kg (~$3,750–3,800/MT)	GreenTech origin check across key Central Highlands markets	GreenTech commercial desk, August 6; July rally corroborated by SGGP
ICE London Robusta, nearby contracts	$3,853–$3,891/MT	Intraday indication supplied to GreenTech; contract months and executable prices must be reconfirmed	ICE Futures Europe
ICE New York Arabica, September 2026	308.21–308.77 ¢/lb	Intraday indication supplied to GreenTech, not an official settlement	ICE Futures U.S.
Santos share of Brazil coffee exports	75% in crop year 2025/26	Concentration makes Santos capacity material to shipment timing	Cecafé, July 15, 2026
ENSO status	El Niño Advisory; 97% chance of persistence into early spring 2027	Raises the need to monitor heat and rainfall variability across producing regions	NOAA CPC, July 9, 2026

Reading the numbers: Farm-gate coffee is not automatically export-ready FAQ coffee. The VND/kg conversion is a currency-equivalent comparison before processing, grading, inland transport, financing, bagging, quality premiums, and exporter margin.

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Key Market Drivers

1. Thin Old-Crop Availability in Vietnam

The new Vietnamese harvest normally begins to gather pace from late October into November. Before that inflow, exporters covering nearby commitments depend on the smaller volume still offered by farmers, collectors, and processors. The result can be a firm local replacement market even when the broader crop outlook points to more supply later in the season.

The August 6 farm-gate range should therefore be treated as an origin-market observation, not as a guaranteed FOB offer. Export grade, screen size, defect tolerance, moisture, processing method, shipment window, and payment terms all change the final quotation.

2. Santos Capacity Remains a Shipment Risk

Cecafé reported that Santos handled 75% of Brazil’s coffee exports in crop year 2025/26 and said outdated port infrastructure, full yards, vessel delays, additional storage, pre-stacking, and detention costs had affected exporters. This supports a continuing logistics-risk premium, but it does not establish a universal two- or three-week delay for every August shipment.

For purchasing plans, use carrier-specific sailing schedules and terminal cut-offs rather than a single port-wide delay assumption. The Detention Zero (DTZ) bulletin is a Cecafé/ElloX monitoring product; “DTZ” is not a type of delay.

3. El Niño, Not La Niña, Is the Weather Regime to Watch

NOAA’s July 9 discussion states that El Niño is present and strengthening, with a 97% chance of continuing through early spring 2027. The direct effect on a specific Vietnamese district cannot be inferred from the ENSO label alone, but importers should monitor local heat, rainfall distribution, fruit filling, harvest timing, and drying conditions.

The commercial risk is quality and timing variability rather than a guaranteed production loss. Contract specifications should define moisture, black and broken defects, screen distribution, cup requirements, and remedies for out-of-spec lots.

4. Surplus Expectations Do Not Remove Prompt Risk

Supply forecasts support a more comfortable 2026/27 balance, but the estimates are not identical. The International Coffee Organization’s February report cited Rabobank’s 8.64-million-bag projection, while StoneX projected roughly 10 million bags.

A global balance is not the same as available coffee of the required origin, grade, delivery month, and port. Buyers still need to manage the interval between today’s physical requirements and future crop arrivals.

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Indicative Forward-Curve Signal

The following curve observations were supplied to GreenTech’s market desk on August 6. They are indicative intraday values, not official settlements, and should be reconfirmed before trading.

ICE NY contract	Indicative price	Difference vs. Sep 2026	Procurement interpretation
Sep 2026	308.50 ¢/lb	Baseline	Nearby cover carried the highest indicated price
Dec 2026	300.15 ¢/lb	-8.35 ¢/lb	Market indicated some relief into year-end
Mar 2027	294.60 ¢/lb	-13.90 ¢/lb	Deferred supply expectations were more comfortable
Sep 2027	293.10 ¢/lb	-15.40 ¢/lb	The curve remained below the nearby indication

Backwardation can make delayed coverage appear attractive, but a futures curve does not secure physical coffee, quality, freight, or shipment space.

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Procurement Friction and Mitigation

Friction point	Possible buyer impact	Practical mitigation
Limited uncommitted Vietnamese old crop	Fewer prompt Grade 1 and Grade 2 offers	Confirm available stock, lot specifications, and shipment window before fixing price
Santos capacity constraints	Carrier-specific rollovers or cut-off changes	Obtain booking confirmation and build a shipment buffer based on the selected service
Changing Red Sea routings	Lane-specific transit and freight volatility	Validate the actual routing and surcharge schedule for each quotation
Premium-grade availability	Wider differentials for Screen 16/18, cleaned, or wet-polished lots	Fix quality specifications and physical differentials separately from futures

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GreenTech Planning Scenarios: August to November 2026

These are procurement planning weights, not statistical forecast probabilities. They help buyers test coverage decisions against different combinations of crop timing, weather, and logistics.

Scenario	Planning weight	Indicative Robusta range	What would support the case	Buyer response
Base	60%	$3,700–4,100/MT	Prompt tightness eases gradually as Vietnamese new crop becomes available	Cover immediate needs in tranches and preserve flexibility for later arrivals
Upside-risk	25%	$4,150–4,650/MT	El Niño-linked heat or rainfall variability affects timing or quality while port constraints persist	Fix critical physical differentials and confirm shipment priority
Downside-risk	15%	$3,300–3,600/MT	Brazilian logistics improve and Vietnamese harvest arrivals are timely and dry	Keep part of later coverage open, subject to inventory tolerance

The ranges are GreenTech planning assumptions as of August 6, not price guarantees or financial advice.

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Action Plan for Importers

1. Prompt August–September needs: Confirm stock existence, quality, and booking feasibility before agreeing a price. Buyers with low inventory tolerance may choose to cover most immediate baseline demand.
2. October–November arrivals: Layer contracts rather than relying on a single harvest-start date. Tie shipment windows to quality and drying requirements.
3. Premium Robusta: Fix Screen 16/18, cleaned, color-sorted, and wet-polished differentials separately from the futures reference.
4. Freight: Compare FOB and CIF on the same routing, free-time, surcharge, and validity assumptions.
5. Risk controls: Treat the scenario weights as an internal planning tool and set coverage according to inventory capacity, customer commitments, and approved hedging policy.

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How GreenTech Supports Buyers

GreenTech coordinates Vietnamese green coffee sourcing with lot-level specifications, transparent commercial terms, and pre-shipment verification:

• Robusta Grade 1 and Grade 2, Screen 16 and Screen 18, cleaned, color-sorted, and wet-polished options.
• Moisture, defect, screen, and cup requirements documented in the sales contract.
• EXW, FOB, or destination quotations aligned to a defined shipment window.
• Representative samples for qualified buyers before contracting.

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Sources and Method

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center — ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, July 9, 2026
• Cecafé — Brazil crop-year 2025/26 export report, July 15, 2026
• International Coffee Organization — Coffee Market Report, February 2026
• StoneX — Coffee Weekly Report, April 6, 2026
• ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and ICE Coffee C Futures
• GreenTech Central Highlands origin checks and market-desk snapshot, August 6, 2026.

Prepared by GreenTech Research for procurement planning. Market observations are time-specific and may change before execution. Confirm futures, physical availability, quality, freight, and shipment terms before contracting.