2026年7月のコーヒー市場分析：ベトナム農家出荷価格92,300〜93,000 VND/kg、ロンドンロブスタ先物3,716〜3,903ドル/トン、ブラジル収穫遅延とエルニーニョリスク。
Vietnam Coffee Importer Outlook
This July brief is built for importers evaluating Vietnamese coffee: local Robusta pricing, shipment risk, and the global market signals that matter for Vietnam sourcing decisions.
Useful as global context for importer sentiment: backwardation shows the market still pays up for prompt nearby coverage.
315c means 315 US cents per pound — the standard Coffee C Arabica futures pricing unit on ICE New York.
The primary July view for buyers of Vietnamese coffee: local cash pricing, London basis context, and sourcing scenarios.
About $3,530-$3,560/mt equivalent in the July report.
ICE Europe trades Robusta in US dollars per metric ton, not cents per pound.
Bear case
$3.0k-$3.4k
Brazil clears cleanly, farmer selling improves, freight friction eases.
Base case
$3.5k-$3.9k
Prices stay volatile and range-bound while prompt logistics remain sticky.
Bull case
$3.9k-$4.4k
Brazil delays persist, El Nino risk intensifies, and freight surcharges hold.
Large Brazil and Vietnam crops argue for looser medium-term pricing.
Low certified stocks, Santos congestion, and Middle East rerouting keep prompt replacement costly.
Layer nearby coverage and fix physical differentials before waiting for a theoretical collapse.
2026年7月のコーヒー市場は二つの相反する現実に直面しています。供給バランス上はブラジル・ベトナムの豊作により700万〜1,000万袋の余剰が予測されていますが、現物市場では依然として即納在庫が緊迫しています。
EXW・FOB価格は毎日更新。発行日より24時間有効（GMT+7）。
| 製品 | EXW ラムドン省 | FOB カットライ港 |
|---|---|---|
| Robusta Ungraded Robusta nhân xô | ||
| Robusta S16 Screen 16 · 6.3 mm | ||
| Robusta S18 Screen 18 · 7.1 mm | ||
| Robusta Culi Peaberry · Culi |
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