수입업체를 위한 2026년 7월 커피 시장 분석: 베트남 농가 로부스타 가격 92,300–93,000 VND/kg, 런던 로부스타 3,716–3,903 USD/톤, 브라질 수확 지연 및 엘니뇨 리스크.
Vietnam Coffee Importer Outlook
This July brief is built for importers evaluating Vietnamese coffee: local Robusta pricing, shipment risk, and the global market signals that matter for Vietnam sourcing decisions.
Useful as global context for importer sentiment: backwardation shows the market still pays up for prompt nearby coverage.
315c means 315 US cents per pound — the standard Coffee C Arabica futures pricing unit on ICE New York.
The primary July view for buyers of Vietnamese coffee: local cash pricing, London basis context, and sourcing scenarios.
About $3,530-$3,560/mt equivalent in the July report.
ICE Europe trades Robusta in US dollars per metric ton, not cents per pound.
Bear case
$3.0k-$3.4k
Brazil clears cleanly, farmer selling improves, freight friction eases.
Base case
$3.5k-$3.9k
Prices stay volatile and range-bound while prompt logistics remain sticky.
Bull case
$3.9k-$4.4k
Brazil delays persist, El Nino risk intensifies, and freight surcharges hold.
Large Brazil and Vietnam crops argue for looser medium-term pricing.
Low certified stocks, Santos congestion, and Middle East rerouting keep prompt replacement costly.
Layer nearby coverage and fix physical differentials before waiting for a theoretical collapse.
2026년 7월 커피 시장은 브라질과 베트남의 풍작으로 인한 글로벌 공급 여유 전망과 실제 현물 시장의 물량 부족이라는 모순된 상황에 놓여 있습니다.
EXW 및 FOB 가격 매일 업데이트. 발행일로부터 24시간 유효 (GMT+7).
| 제품 | EXW 람동성 | FOB 캣라이항 |
|---|---|---|
| Robusta Ungraded Robusta nhân xô | ||
| Robusta S16 Screen 16 · 6.3 mm | ||
| Robusta S18 Screen 18 · 7.1 mm | ||
| Robusta Culi Peaberry · Culi |
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