2026年7月进口商咖啡市场分析：越南农场门前罗布斯塔价格接近 92,300–93,000 越南盾/公斤，伦敦罗布斯塔期货接近 $3,716–3,903/吨，巴西采收延迟，厄尔尼诺风险及中东航运瓶颈。
Vietnam Coffee Importer Outlook
This July brief is built for importers evaluating Vietnamese coffee: local Robusta pricing, shipment risk, and the global market signals that matter for Vietnam sourcing decisions.
Useful as global context for importer sentiment: backwardation shows the market still pays up for prompt nearby coverage.
315c means 315 US cents per pound — the standard Coffee C Arabica futures pricing unit on ICE New York.
The primary July view for buyers of Vietnamese coffee: local cash pricing, London basis context, and sourcing scenarios.
About $3,530-$3,560/mt equivalent in the July report.
ICE Europe trades Robusta in US dollars per metric ton, not cents per pound.
Bear case
$3.0k-$3.4k
Brazil clears cleanly, farmer selling improves, freight friction eases.
Base case
$3.5k-$3.9k
Prices stay volatile and range-bound while prompt logistics remain sticky.
Bull case
$3.9k-$4.4k
Brazil delays persist, El Nino risk intensifies, and freight surcharges hold.
Large Brazil and Vietnam crops argue for looser medium-term pricing.
Low certified stocks, Santos congestion, and Middle East rerouting keep prompt replacement costly.
Layer nearby coverage and fix physical differentials before waiting for a theoretical collapse.
2026年7月是一个存在两种矛盾事实的咖啡市场。书面上看，由于巴西和越南的大丰收，2026/27全球供需平衡看起来有所放缓，主要贸易预测指向 700万至1000万包的过剩。然而在现货市场中，近期供应依然紧张。巴西的采收因异常降雨而放缓，ICE 阿拉比卡认证库存维持低位，越南农户谨慎出售，中东航运中断继续推高到岸成本。
| 指标 | 价格 | 变动 / 背景 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 越南罗布斯塔 (农场门前价) | 92,300–93,000 VND/kg (~$3,530–3,560/吨) | 3个多月来国内最高水平 | 中央高原 |
| 伦敦罗布斯塔期货 (26年7月/9月) | $3,903 / $3,716 每吨 | 近月合约保持历史高位 | ICE 伦敦 |
| 纽约阿拉比卡期货 (26年9月) | 301.20 ¢/lb | 从 316.80 ¢/lb 的5个月高点回调 | ICE 纽约 |
| ICE 阿拉比卡认证库存 | ~375,000–380,000 包 | 处于约2.25年低点 | ICE 仓库 |
EXW及FOB价格每日更新，自报价日起24小时内有效（GMT+7）。
| 产品 | EXW 林同省 | FOB 猫来港 |
|---|---|---|
| Robusta Ungraded Robusta nhân xô | ||
| Robusta S16 Screen 16 · 6.3 mm | ||
| Robusta S18 Screen 18 · 7.1 mm | ||
| Robusta Culi Peaberry · Culi |
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